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Vote projection: NDP’s Bachrach heavy favourite in Skeena—Bulkley Valley

Incumbent candidate given a 99 per cent chance of holding northwest B.C. seat, per 338Canada
Skeena-Bulkley Valley candidates for the 2021 federal election (clockwise from top left): Taylor Bachrach (NDP), Jody Craven (People’s Party), Claire Rattée (Conservative), Lakhwinder Jhaj (Liberal), Adeana Young (Green Party), Rod Taylor (Christian Heritage). (Black Press Media composite image)

Challengers vying to be elected in the Skeena—Bulkley Valley riding have work to do to unseat incumbent NDP candidate Taylor Bachrach, according to the latest federal election projections.

The independently owned website aggregates national polling data from a variety of firms, using mostly proportional swing methodology with regional adjustments and some demographic data to project the election outcome in each of the country’s 338 electoral districts.

As of Sept. 8, Skeena—Bulkley Valley is listed as ‘NDP safe,’ with Bachrach given a greater than 99 per cent chance of winning on election day, Sept. 20.

The NDP are projected to haul in 51 per cent of votes in the riding with a confidence interval of plus or minus eight per cent. That would outdo their share of the vote in the 2019 election, which was just under 41 per cent.

The Conservative candidate Claire Rattée is predicted to place second with 29 per cent of votes (+/- seven per cent).

In the 2019 election, Rattée outperformed her projection of 26.1 per cent, claiming 33 per cent of votes and losing to Bachrach.

The Liberal Party is projected to finish third with 10 per cent of the vote (+/- four per cent). The party was the last to acclaim its candidate — five days after the election was called.

Lakhwinder Jhaj is not from the riding, nor participated in either the Sept. 7 All Candidates Debate hosted by the Terrace Standard at the R.E.M. Lee Theatre in Terrace, or the Sept. 8 Virtual All Candidates Forum hosted by chambers of commerce in the riding.

That could present an opportunity to first-time Green candidate Adeana Young, who’s party trailed the Liberals by only 3.7 per cent in 2019. However, the 338Canada projection for the Green Party in Skeena—Bulkley Valley is only 3.9 per cent (+/- 3 per cent) which is less than the projected vote share of the People’s Party.

The model predicts PPC candidate Jody Craven will win 4.7 per cent of votes (+/- 3.7 per cent) and Christian Heritage Party national leader Rod Taylor one per cent.

The latest national public polling data has the Liberals and Conservatives neck and neck in the race, with the Tories at nearly 34 per cent support and the Liberals just above 32 per cent. The NDP are polling in third place at around 20 per cent.

In B.C., the election is shaping up to be a three-way contest. Polling data has the Liberals, Conservatives and NDP all hovering around 30 per cent support.

READ MORE: VIDEO: Skeena—Bulkley Valley candidates spar over northwest issues during debate