To the editor:
A black swan event refers to an unexpected occurrence with a major impact that, in hindsight, seems inevitable. This concept could apply to recent shifts in B.C. politics.
B.C.’s carbon tax, introduced by the centre-right BC Liberals in 2008,marked North America’s first such tax. Initially set at $10 per ton of CO2, it increased annually by $5 until 2012, reaching $30 per ton.
B.C.’s carbon tax, introduced by the centre-right BC Liberals in 2008,marked North America’s first such tax. Initially set at $10 per ton of CO2, it increased annually by $5 until 2012, reaching $30 per ton.
Under the NDP, which took power in 2017 with the support of the Green Party, the tax rose further, now standing at $85 per ton. Originally revenue-neutral, the NDP removed this feature in 2017.
In 2022, the tax generated $2.5 billion, but only $1 billion was rebated, leaving BC residents feeling the financial impact in a more substantial way.
A key part of the NDP platform in the Oct. 19 election was to remove the tax from consumers but only with federal approval. That's because if there is no provincial carbon tax, the federal tax replaces it.
Meanwhile, the BC Conservatives made eliminating the carbon tax a key part of their campaign.
Meanwhile, the BC Conservatives made eliminating the carbon tax a key part of their campaign.
In BC politics, the landscape has shifted dramatically. After being ousted from BC United (formerly the BC Liberals) for questioning climate science, John Rustad joined the BC Conservatives and, by 2023, led a resurgence in the party.
Meanwhile, BC United, once a dominant force, suspended its 2024 campaign due to dwindling support, urging members to back the BC Conservatives.
These rapid changes, driven by frustration over rising taxes and living costs under the NDP, could be considered black swan events.
These rapid changes, driven by frustration over rising taxes and living costs under the NDP, could be considered black swan events.
BC United’s collapse, paired with the Conservatives’ rise, reflects a political shift few could have predicted, as well as having former BC Liberals and BC United running as either Independents or Unaffiliated in the Oct. 19 provincial election.
This turbulence in B.C. politics highlights a growing disconnect between voters and the complex realities of policy, as many focus more on slogans than substantive issues.
Perhaps it’s time we all take a closer look in the mirror and ask what we can do to change things.
Martin Holzbauer,
Thornhill, B.C.
