LNG a chancy proposition
After watching television last night I had this dream. B.C.’s premier was on the Dragons’ Den TV show asking for billions for natural gas projects.
She made a good pitch, the same that got her elected, pointing out how natural liquid gas would assure the province’s economic wellbeing. Restore all that has been destroyed by her government, eliminate poverty of thousands of children, provide permanent well-paying jobs for all people, white or brown, etc.
The dragons then asked their usual questions; have you got sole distribution rights for this! Our competitors are USA, Australia (who is currently cutting back production because of a glut worldwide).
Russia with direct pipelines to China and China itself developing a shale gas industry that will provide 150 billion cubic metric of natural gas, about two-thirds of the projected consumption by 2020.
A dragon asks “have you done cost and return analyses?
“Oh yes, it is predicted that the only way to get into this market is to lower prices.”
How about the environment.
Is the fracking process not depleting the freshwater and poisoning the rest of the ground water?
“True, but some of the scores of my staffers will find a way to market flammable water, once all the gas is gone.” And the premier’s last desperate pitch is this: “I need your support, I am a single parent, and this is the only thing I can think of, you can have 99 per cent of the profits if any.”
At this time Kevin (Mr. Wonderful) comments, “I do not care about the water, I drink wine, I care only about the money, this is the worst presentation ever, my beloved money will never be invested in this insane idea, seven LNG plants! Looks more like a herd of white elephants. The market will crash you like a cockroach, I am out.”
Now that I am awake I looked up the numbers around LNG here is what I learned: Asia demands are expected to grow to 216 cubic billion feet by 2020. The current import is 30 cubic billion feet. Under construction is 97 cubic billion feet. China’s industry will provide 150 cubic billion feet. The total capacity existing or under construction is 367 cubic billion feet. World surplus before B.C. plants are started is 151 cubic billion feet.
Should one or more of these plants actually get built do not be surprised to find the workers to be Chinese, Irishmen and Albertans.
If you after looking at these facts thinks that multiple LNG plants are a good investment, and believe in this pipe dream, pun intended. I am looking for investors to purchase a couple of bridges. Note to self-stop watching T.V.